Mechanisms and Adjustment Strategies for Supply–Demand Mismatch of Physical Education Teachers in Basic Education: A School-Age Population Change Perspective

Abstract

Amid changes in the size and structure of the school-age population, PE teacher allocation in basic education shows three supply–demand mismatches: quantity mismatch (localized shortages and redundancies driven by grade-level fluctuations), structural mismatch (rising demand for composite competencies but misaligned specialization and skills), and spatial mismatch (uneven distribution across regions, urban–rural areas, and schools). Using a linked “population–school–position” framework, the paper identifies three corresponding causes: quantity mismatch results from lagged demand forecasting and recruitment planning combined with long training cycles; structural mismatch arises from misalignment between preparation standards and competency-based job requirements and insufficient in-service upskilling; spatial mismatch is driven by weak county-level pooling, limited mobility incentives, and high redeployment costs. Accordingly, three adjustment strategies are proposed: a cohort-based rolling forecasting and early-warning system linked to establishment and hiring decisions; competency-oriented redesign of pre-service preparation and in-service training to strengthen cross-grade and multi-sport capacities; and county-level pooling with incentive-based mobility, supported by remuneration and career-development policies to improve attraction and retention in disadvantaged areas. The study offers actionable pathways to enhance anticipatory planning, precision, and equity in PE teacher allocation.